Measles: What the US Data Actually Shows

The published figures

Every number below is reproduced from a primary source and carries that source beside it. Where a figure is absent it is shown as unavailable rather than estimated — the reasoning for each gap is set out further down this page.

annual_exposure_or_cases_estimate and annual_deaths_estimate are full-year 2025 confirmed totals. hospitalization_rate_pct (11%) is from the CDC MMWR Jan-Apr 2025 update, the most specific percentage CDC published. case_fatality_rate_pct is a same-record derivation (deaths ÷ cases, both CDC full-year 2025 US totals) per the tiered-sourcing/derivation policy (SITE-PLAYBOOK.md §12a) — previously left UNAVAILABLE when derivation from raw CDC figures wasn't yet permitted. As of August 6, 2026, 2,465 measles cases had already been reported in 2026 — already exceeding the full 2025 total and on pace for the worst year since elimination. 2026 is an incomplete year and is not yet shown in the trend.

How these figures were calculated

One figure above is arithmetic rather than a number lifted straight from an agency page. Both inputs are given below with their own source, geography, and reporting period, so the calculation can be checked rather than taken on trust. A derived figure is never rated more reliable than its weakest input.

What this data cannot tell you

1 of the five funnel metrics has no publishable US figure for Measles. That is a deliberate result, not an oversight. Where no primary source publishes a comparable figure, this site leaves the cell empty rather than filling it with an estimate, a number borrowed from a different population, or a single-study result presented as a general rate.

• Severe Outcome Rate — no comparable figure published by the record's primary source as of 2026-08-06.

This matters when comparing viruses. A blank cell is not a low number: it means the measurement does not exist, and treating it as zero would make Measles look safer than the evidence supports. The comparison table on the Virus Risk Perspective page applies the same rule — unavailable figures are excluded from ranking rather than sorted to the bottom.

How Measles compares

Ranked only against viruses in this collection that publish the same metric. Viruses without a published figure are excluded from each comparison rather than counted as zero, so the denominator differs from metric to metric.

Read the case comparison carefully. Records in this collection do not all measure exposure the same way. Some report confirmed cases counted by a surveillance system (measles, West Nile), others a modelled estimate of total annual illness including cases that are never reported (norovirus, seasonal influenza). A modelled burden figure will always dwarf a confirmed-case count, so a gap on this metric can reflect how a disease is counted as much as how often it occurs. The per-figure sources above state which basis each number uses.

How the figures have moved

Each observation below is a figure as it stood on a given date, with the source that published it. Points are not interpolated: where an agency published a figure once, one point is shown rather than a line drawn through invented values.

Global picture

WHO estimates 95,000 measles deaths globally in 2024 (down from 780,000 in 2000). WHO's fact sheet states no global annual case total, so global cases and rates are left UNAVAILABLE. Fact sheet re-read 2026-09-15: re-dated 15 July 2026 but 2024 (95,000 deaths) is still the latest year estimated — WHO's 2025 estimate is expected with the next annual measles report — so the 2024 figure and its date stand.

Source: WHO — Measles fact sheet · Data as of 2024-12-31 · Surveillance confidence: moderate

Sources

• CDC — Measles Cases and Outbreaks primary source · retrieved 2026-08-06
• WHO — Measles fact sheet primary source · retrieved 2024-12-31

Sourcing tiers, and the rule that a derived figure inherits its weakest input's tier, are set out on the Our Sources page. The process behind every figure is described in How We Answer Questions.