Mpox: What the US Data Actually Shows

A viral disease (formerly called monkeypox) that causes a painful or itchy rash along with flu-like symptoms, spread mainly through close skin-to-skin contact.

Figures current as of 2026-08-27 · Surveillance confidence: moderate · 4 of 5 US funnel metrics have a publishable figure

Mainly Imported into US Established low-level US transmission after the 2022 outbreak; cases continue at a much lower level.

Evolving situation: CDC's situation summary (August 27, 2026) still frames both clades as active: since November 2024 there have been more than 50 laboratory-confirmed clade I cases in the United States (almost all subclade Ib, travel-linked, no deaths), with autochthonous clade Ib transmission reported in Western Europe from fall 2025 and CDC expecting additional US cases; clade II continues at low levels, with fall 2025 the highest monthly counts since the 2022 peak before returning to background by December 2025. Risk to most people in the United States remains low.

The published figures

Every number below is reproduced from a primary source and carries that source beside it. Where a figure is absent it is shown as unavailable rather than estimated — the reasoning for each gap is set out further down this page.

MetricUnited StatesSourceAs of
Annual Exposure / Cases 2,519 CDC MMWR — Monkeypox Virus Surveillance, United States, 2024–2025 primary source 2026-08-20
Severe Outcome Rate Data not available CDC — Monkeypox in the United States and Around the World: Current Situation (updated August 27, 2026) primary source 2026-08-27
Hospitalization Rate 9.5% CDC MMWR — Monkeypox Virus Surveillance, United States, 2024–2025 primary source 2026-08-20
Case Fatality Rate 0.04% CDC MMWR — Monkeypox Virus Surveillance, United States, 2024–2025 primary source 2026-08-20
Annual Deaths 1 CDC MMWR — Monkeypox Virus Surveillance, United States, 2024–2025 primary source 2026-08-20

All five US cells now come from CDC's MMWR surveillance summary for 2024–2025 (published August 20, 2026): 2,519 cases, 1 death and a 0.04% fatality proportion for 2025, and a 9.5% hospitalization proportion for 2024–2025 combined among cases with known status. severe_outcome_rate_pct stays UNAVAILABLE — CDC publishes no severe-illness proportion for the general US case population, only the hospitalization proportion above. cases_per_100k is a Tier 1.5 derivation (CDC 2025 case count ÷ US Census Vintage 2025 population) per SITE-PLAYBOOK.md §12a. Until this MMWR, CDC's case-data page was dashboard-rendered without a static annual total, which is why these cells were previously UNAVAILABLE.

What this data cannot tell you

1 of the five funnel metrics has no publishable US figure for Mpox. That is a deliberate result, not an oversight. Where no primary source publishes a comparable figure, this site leaves the cell empty rather than filling it with an estimate, a number borrowed from a different population, or a single-study result presented as a general rate.

  • Severe Outcome Rate — no comparable figure published by the record's primary source as of 2026-08-27.

This matters when comparing viruses. A blank cell is not a low number: it means the measurement does not exist, and treating it as zero would make Mpox look safer than the evidence supports. The comparison table on the Virus Risk Perspective page applies the same rule — unavailable figures are excluded from ranking rather than sorted to the bottom.

How Mpox compares

Ranked only against viruses in this collection that publish the same metric. Viruses without a published figure are excluded from each comparison rather than counted as zero, so the denominator differs from metric to metric.

Read the case comparison carefully. Records in this collection do not all measure exposure the same way. Some report confirmed cases counted by a surveillance system (measles, West Nile), others a modelled estimate of total annual illness including cases that are never reported (norovirus, seasonal influenza). A modelled burden figure will always dwarf a confirmed-case count, so a gap on this metric can reflect how a disease is counted as much as how often it occurs. The per-figure sources above state which basis each number uses.

Annual Exposure / Cases

At 2,519, 5 of the 10 other viruses reporting this metric are higher and 5 are lower. Higher: Seasonal influenza, Norovirus, COVID-19. Lower: Measles, West Nile virus, Dengue.

Hospitalization Rate

At 9.5%, Mpox is the lowest of the 5 viruses reporting this metric. Higher: Powassan virus, West Nile virus, Dengue.

Case Fatality Rate

At 0.04%, Mpox is the lowest of the 10 viruses reporting this metric. Higher: Rabies, Hantavirus, Powassan virus.

Annual Deaths

At 1, 8 of the 9 other viruses reporting this metric are higher and 1 are lower. Higher: Seasonal influenza, COVID-19, Respiratory syncytial virus. Lower: Avian influenza A.

How the figures have moved

Each observation below is a figure as it stood on a given date, with the source that published it. Points are not interpolated: where an agency published a figure once, one point is shown rather than a line drawn through invented values.

Global picture

In the global outbreak from January 2022 to August 2024, over 100,000 laboratory-confirmed mpox cases and over 220 deaths were reported across 120+ countries. This is a cumulative multi-year outbreak total, not an annual rate, so funnel figures are UNAVAILABLE. Fact sheet re-read 2026-09-15: still dated 26 August 2024 and still the latest WHO fact-sheet figure. CDC's situation summary (August 27, 2026) puts the clade IIb outbreak at more than 100,000 cases in 122 countries and gives clade-specific death rates from recent outbreaks — under 0.5% (clade Ib), about 3% (clade Ia), under 0.1% (clade II) — which are ranges by clade rather than one comparable global fatality figure, so the CFR cell also stays UNAVAILABLE.

Source: WHO — Mpox fact sheet · Data as of 2024-08-31 · Surveillance confidence: moderate

Sources

Sourcing tiers, and the rule that a derived figure inherits its weakest input's tier, are set out on the Our Sources page. The process behind every figure is described in How We Answer Questions.

Written and researched by Andy Wilcox, an independent researcher not a physician — his work is the product of disciplined primary-source research drawing on 30+ years as a consultant, operating executive, and investor. Nothing here is medical advice.

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